As some of you may know, I'm not exactly the biggest fan of purely electric cars, and believe that hybrids are the way to go (but that's a different conversation for a different day). However I will begrudgingly accept that electric cars have their place in the future of vehicular transport.
So the question I poise today is: Is Tesla the car equivalent of AOL?
If you grew up anywhere in the USA in the mid-to-late 90s, everyone either had dabbled in, or actively used AOL. AOL's internet software was mailed on CDs to every household so frequently that they were often used as Frisbees, and occasionally for experimentation in microwaves to see them crackle (note: I did not do this, but had several friends who had. Their mothers were not pleased.). AOL literally drove America Online. If one was a betting man in this time frame, you would be foolish not to think that AOL would sustain priority over all internet domains. Yes there were a few side options, but those were far less well-known, far less used, and just different from what was deemed "the norm" of internet browsing. If AOL did not exist, the acceptance and level of internet consumption today would be nowhere near the levels they are today. AOL captured the curiosity of the market segment deemed "new techies "of 1990s and nudged them over the edge into this interconnected world of the internet. AOL made the internet a tangible thing, and a regular household thing to talk about as well. Yes, AOL had its critics, and many growing pains associated with it. Some went as far as to call AOL a marketing masterclass which couldn't meet demand, which led to extensive waits and punishing customer care hold lines. Some also claimed it sterilized the web browsing process. People only knew the internet through the filter of AOL, and once users veered off that path on to the big bad internet not monitored by this service, they were greeted with multiple unpleasant surprises. In a nutshell, AOL's market share started to decrease, and they were eventually was bought Time Warner in 2000. In 2015, AOL was bought by the media conglomerate Oath Inc., and operates on a different path as a digital media company.
Now let's compare this blurb on AOL to the up-and-coming rise of Tesla. Through the marketing master-magician that is Elon Musk, Tesla is a household name. Like the relationship of AOL with internet, when one hears electric car, one think Tesla. Although not marketed in the spam Frisbee like fashion AOL was, Tesla is marketed through consistent pitches and investments through business websites and many media outlets. Elon speaks, people buy. Like AOL, Tesla has experienced significant public growing pains of keeping up with demand and their customers have experienced extended wait times. Like AOL, Tesla is the current perceived leader in the electric car manufacturing industry. Like AOL, Tesla has spurred other competitors to kick in into overdrive, just to be able to keep up. As of 2016, Tesla's 2 main vehicles occupied 30% of the electric vehicle market share. Unsurprisingly, other companies are making electric vehicles a priority. Some experts believe that global electric vehicles on the road will increase from 2017's 3.1-million, to 125-million by 2030, an incredible near 4000% increase in expected sales. Contradictory to Mr. Musk's speeches and presentations, it would be naive to believe that Tesla will be able to meet this demand solely by themselves. Like AOL, Tesla may succumb to the pressures of larger conglomerates and sell.
Overall, it is very possible to use AOL as the prediction model for Tesla. Although only hindsight will be able to prove its correctness, like others, I can't help but wonder the future ownership and status of the Tesla brand. Will it follow AOL's model by peaking early, then over time slowly lose market share and yield its masterclass to a larger company like GM or BMW. Like AOL switched from internet provider to digital media provider, will Tesla relinquish it's complete auto-making powers to its parent company to then focus on another segment within the same market? Whatever happens, Tesla has definitely taken the public's imagination and perspectives on a wild ride, and is providing us with a live interpretation of a new market.
Sources:
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/teslas-market-share-grows-to-30-percent-of-all-us-plug-in-vehicle-sales
https://www.fleetcarma.com/ev-sales-usa-2016-final/
Write a comment